Analyzing Bargain Stocks

China Oriental (‘group’) is in the business of manufacturing steel products (68% of revenues) as well as trading steel/iron ore and real estate development. It is a relatively large concern – ranked in the top 300 largest firms in China – and holds a leading position in H-section steel products since 2009 (41% of revenues). Other sales are: steel strip products (37%) and billets, sheet piling, and cold rolled sheets among others (22%). It also has 387m RMB of properties under development in inventory. Though it’s a large entity with presumed efficiencies of scale, it generates a sub-par return on capital (~7.5%). Part of this is due to the heavy capex typical of the steel industry. The group has also made large investments in railway transportation, which should enhance efficiencies (and reduce carbon footprint) when it becomes operational within the next year. Certain loans and advances were made on an interest-free basis – facilitated by the “government department concerned” (3

Following on from our analysis of Avarga, we dive into its main subsidiary, which is listed in Canada – Taiga Building Products (‘Taiga’). Since Taiga is Avarga’s dominant asset, most of the economic analysis is redundant – except for some additional information below. Taiga is the largest independent wholesale distributor of building products in Canada (comprising 78% of sales). In addition, it sells to the US and parts of Asia. Its inventories comprise lumber products (70%), allied building products (18%), panel products (11%) and production consumables. The company recently reported losses for the quarter ending September (which wasn’t available for Avarga) – this seems primarily due to rapidly falling prices of lumber, set against relatively higher inventory costs accumulated earlier in the year. It also has sales and earnings information stretching further back as Avarga acquired majority control of Taiga only in 2017. Average earnings range between CA $40m and $55m. T

Avarga is listed in Singapore and is primarily engaged in the wholesale distribution of building (lumber) products in Canada (~75% of revenues) and the US (~20%) – which contributes over 90% of sales and profits. It conducts this via its 71.8% equity interest in Taiga Building products (‘Taiga’) listed in Canada (valued at SG $193m at market). It’s also engaged in manufacturing paper/packaging products in Malaysia (used for e-commerce), and electricity generation in Myanmar. Looking at the consolidated financial statements, the group generated bumper sales and profits in the last twelve months due to exaggeratedly higher lumber prices that hovered over US $1,000/mbf (‘1000 board feet’). Lumber prices are currently below $600/mbf. Average revenues since 2018 amounted to $1.7b (70% of TTM revenues of $2.4b). Applying average blended profit margins of just under 5.5% yields $95m of ebitda and $60m in after-tax profits – which equates to average cash from operations in the past four

Dutech (‘company’) is listed in Singapore and primarily operates in two segments: a) High security solutions (HSS): Manufacturing safes for ATM machines, banking, and commercial use; and b) Business solutions (BS): Manufacturing ticketing/vending machines (used for parking, gaming, lottery, etc.) and wholesaling semiconductor and precision machine parts. Though both segments contribute equally to sales, the HSS segment contributes 85% of profits. It is Asia’s largest operator in the HSS segment – its UL and CEN certified products are valued in Europe (60% of sales) and the Americas (25%) – but not so much in its home base of China (4%) where it doesn’t intend to compete with lower-priced offerings. This segment, however, faces long-term headwinds due to the increasing use of cashless transactions resulting in lower demand for ATM safes. In addition, the industry faces rising raw material and labor costs. Moreover, the US-China trade spat resulted in higher costs with the use of t

IJTT (‘company’) is engaged in manufacturing automobile parts – primarily for use in trucks and construction machinery. Isuzu Motors – a prominent commercial vehicle and diesel engine manufacturing company - owns 43.5% of the company’s stock, and generates 69% of its sales. Its sales are primarily generated in Japan (83% of 2020 sales – split further as 54% auto parts and 29% engine parts) with the balance from the rest of Asia (17% auto parts – primarily to China’s construction machinery market). Moreover, its tangible asset investment is split similarly - and includes operations in Indonesia and Thailand. FY20 sales were actually higher than expected because of rushed buying before Japan’s consumption tax hike kicked in. However, the coronavirus pandemic has significantly diminished sales for the company’s products – and suspended production. TTM sales (to September 2020) was 136.3b yen (FY20: 171.7b); ebitda was 6.4b yen (FY20: 13.9b yen) and net losses were 1.2b yen (FY20:

Geostr (‘company’) manufactures construction materials used in a) the civil engineering segment using reinforced concrete; and b) the building construction segment using precast concrete. It primarily specializes in supplying tunnel structural materials for subways, waterworks, and sewerage. The industry is blighted by an aging workforce and a shortage of skilled labor. It also faces the unpleasant long-term prospect of a declining population and consequent reduced demand. Further, it is also exposed to rising raw material prices of cement, aggregates, steel, etc. Nippon Steel (third largest steel manufacturer in the world) owns 42.3% of the company – directly and via subsidiaries. It also generates about 50% of the company’s sales. The company primarily serves the public sector and therefore its prospects are tied to the Japanese government’s public investment plans, which has been relatively firm in the recent past – though some work has been suspended as a result of the corona

Trinity Industrial (‘company’) is part of the Toyota Group and is engaged in manufacturing painting equipment (74% of 2020 sales), and automobile interior and exterior parts (26%). The segment profit split is 83% and 17% respectively. The Toyota Motor Corporation owns 40.71% of the company directly and through other subsidiaries. Further, 38% of 2020 sales were to Toyota. In addition to Japan (67% of sales), the company also sold to customers in China (18%), rest of Asia (8%), and others (7%). The company primarily sells to the automobile industry and hence, its fortunes are tied to automobile demand and the industry’s capital investment plans. It is also subject to raw material price rises in resin and steel, which are procured internationally. Recent demand in Japan was adversely impacted by the consumption tax hike – and the main markets of USA and China exhibited lower demand in the last year. Though the pandemic worsened this situation, the company’s sales fell only 6% in th