Analyzing Bargain Stocks

Geostr (‘company’) manufactures construction materials used in a) the civil engineering segment using reinforced concrete; and b) the building construction segment using precast concrete. It primarily specializes in supplying tunnel structural materials for subways, waterworks, and sewerage. The industry is blighted by an aging workforce and a shortage of skilled labor. It also faces the unpleasant long-term prospect of a declining population and consequent reduced demand. Further, it is also exposed to rising raw material prices of cement, aggregates, steel, etc. Nippon Steel (third largest steel manufacturer in the world) owns 42.3% of the company – directly and via subsidiaries. It also generates about 50% of the company’s sales. The company primarily serves the public sector and therefore its prospects are tied to the Japanese government’s public investment plans, which has been relatively firm in the recent past – though some work has been suspended as a result of the corona

Trinity Industrial (‘company’) is part of the Toyota Group and is engaged in manufacturing painting equipment (74% of 2020 sales), and automobile interior and exterior parts (26%). The segment profit split is 83% and 17% respectively. The Toyota Motor Corporation owns 40.71% of the company directly and through other subsidiaries. Further, 38% of 2020 sales were to Toyota. In addition to Japan (67% of sales), the company also sold to customers in China (18%), rest of Asia (8%), and others (7%). The company primarily sells to the automobile industry and hence, its fortunes are tied to automobile demand and the industry’s capital investment plans. It is also subject to raw material price rises in resin and steel, which are procured internationally. Recent demand in Japan was adversely impacted by the consumption tax hike – and the main markets of USA and China exhibited lower demand in the last year. Though the pandemic worsened this situation, the company’s sales fell only 6% in th

Mori-Gumi (‘company’) is a small civil engineering and construction company – with minor operations in real estate sales/leasing, and manufacture and sales of crushed stones. Asahi Kasei Corporation owns 30.26% of the company. Its civil engineering and construction segments are roughly split 50:50 on a revenue basis. Its orders are also split roughly halfway between the government and private sectors. About 1/3 rd of its projects are categorized as “special mission”, and 2/3 rd are generated as a result of competitive bidding. Two customers accounted for 35% of its revenues. The travails of the Japanese construction industry include lower prospective demand due to an aging population; and a real shortage of skilled workers joining the industry. The coronavirus pandemic led to delays and suspensions of major contract work. Though reported sales in the last six months were higher over the previous period, construction orders were down 20%. The company reported TTM sales (to Sep

Tobishima (‘company’) is engaged in civil engineering (57% of revenues), construction (37%), and real estate development (6%) work in Japan. It generates 25-35% of its orders via “special mission” contracts, and the balance via competitive tenders. The construction industry in Japan is currently experiencing declining demand and fierce competition after work for the Tokyo Olympics subsided. It faces a fairly poor demand outlook on account of Japan’s aging population, and a shortage of skilled workers. Orders to March 2020 were already down 25-30%. The coronavirus pandemic further dented orders and sales. The company reported TTM sales (to September 2020) of 129.4b yen (FY20: 134.9b), ebitda of 7.6b yen (FY20: 8.7b), and net profits of 4.3b yen (FY20: 5.1b). Earnings averaged 5.2b yen over the last five years. The company operates with net debt of 6.9b yen, which is easily covered by less than a year’s operating earnings. Receivables were fairly high at 55.2b yen, which indic

Pegasus Sewing (‘company’) is engaged in manufacturing industrial sewing machines for use in the apparel industry (80% of revenues); and die-casting parts for use in automobile safety belts (20% of revenues). The company specializes in ‘chain sewing’ machines used in garment factories for sewing jeans and other knit clothing – and is a leading operator in Japan. Its die-casting parts manufacturing facilities are located in the three major automobile parts production hubs – China, Vietnam, and Mexico – to service American and European automobile manufacturers. The company sells its products across the world in Japan (8% of sales), China (21%), Bangladesh (13%), Rest of Asia (32%), Americas (16%), Europe (7%), and others (3%). Its manufacturing facilities are spread as follows: Japan (46%), China (29%), Vietnam (12%), Americas (11%), and others (2%). The US-China trade dispute and resulting protectionist measures hit the apparel industry badly and capital investment from the garm

Nippon Gear (‘company’) is a small operator that manufactures, sells, and maintains gears and jacks, valves and actuators, other acceleration/deceleration machines, etc. - for use in power plants, automobiles, industrial machinery, construction machinery, machine tools, railways, shipping, and water and sewage - among other industries. The company operates entirely in Japan and has a diversified customer base (including some exports to machine tool manufacturers in China). The business is largely dependent on the capital investment cycle and the frequency of inspections/maintenance of plant and machinery. It is also exposed to severe price competition and rising raw material costs of iron and copper. The coronavirus pandemic resulted in orders declining by 11% (though revenues were up 6% to September). The company reported TTM revenues (to September) of 7.8b yen (FY20: 7.6b), ebitda of 998m (FY20: 842m), and net profits of 504m (FY20: 396m). Earnings averaged 432m yen over the last fiv

Yurtec is a contracting company primarily engaged in “equipment construction” – for electrical, communication, air conditioning, and other general equipment. This activity accounts for 98% of revenues. It is also engaged in miscellaneous businesses such as leasing of equipment, security services, and manufacture/sale of mineral water. Tohoku Electric Power (‘Tohoku’) owns 41.8% of the company – and contributes 42% of its revenues. Its equipment construction business includes: a) indoor wiring work, b) power distribution line construction, c) power transmission and information/communication work, and d) air conditioning pipe construction. Recent regulations requiring Tohoku to tender work to external companies has curtailed orders for the company and subject it to greater competition, and this may continue to adversely impact operations. (Sales have declined continuously since 2016 – see below.) In addition, it is subject to all the pains afflicting Japan’s construction industry